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$20 Per Gallon: How the Inevitable Rise in the Price of Gasoline Will Change Our Lives for the Better |  | Author: Christopher Steiner Publisher: Grand Central Publishing Category: Book
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Seller: Amazon.com Rating: 48 reviews Sales Rank: 16217
Media: Hardcover Edition: 1 Pages: 288 Number Of Items: 1 Shipping Weight (lbs): 1.1 Dimensions (in): 9.1 x 6.1 x 1.1
ISBN: 0446549541 Dewey Decimal Number: 330.973 EAN: 9780446549547 ASIN: 0446549541
Publication Date: July 15, 2009 Shipping: Eligible for FREE Super Saver Shipping Availability: Usually ships in 24 hours
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Amazon.com Review Book Description Imagine an everyday world in which the price of gasoline (and oil) continues to go up, and up, and up. Think about the immediate impact that would have on our lives. Of course, everybody already knows how about gasoline has affected our driving habits. People can't wait to junk their gas-guzzling SUVs for a new Prius. But there are more, not-so-obvious changes on the horizon that Chris Steiner tracks brilliantly in this provocative work. Consider the following societal changes: people who own homes in far-off suburbs will soon realize that there's no longer any market for their houses (reason: nobody wants to live too far away because it's too expensive to commute to work). Telecommuting will begin to expand rapidly. Trains will become the mode of national transportation (as it used to be) as the price of flying becomes prohibitive. Families will begin to migrate southward as the price of heating northern homes in the winter is too pricey. Cheap everyday items that are comprised of plastic will go away because of the rising price to produce them (plastic is derived from oil). And this is just the beginning of a huge and overwhelming domino effect that our way of life will undergo in the years to come. Steiner, an engineer by training before turning to journalism, sees how this simple but constant rise in oil and gas prices will totally re-structure our lifestyle. But what may be surprising to readers is that all of these changes may not be negative--but actually will usher in some new and very promising aspects of our society. Steiner will probe how the liberation of technology and innovation, triggered by climbing gas prices, will change our lives. The book may start as an alarmist's exercise.... but don't be misled. The future will be exhilarating. Amazon.com Review Q&A with Christoper Steiner, the author of $20 per Gallon: How the Inevitable Rise in the Price of Gasoline Will Change Our Lives for the Better Steiner, an engineer-turn-journalist, explains how the simple but constant rise in oil and gas prices will change our lifestyle, but not necessarily for the worse. Read this Q&A to find out more about this revolutionary theory.  Gas prices are going up again this summer, but are you really suggesting prices might rise to $20 a gallon? That figure lies far ahead in the future; it's hardly an imminent thing. But most people don't require much convincing to know that $2 gas isn't sustainable for the long term. Oil is a finite resource that the whole world demands--a world that grows more gasoline consumers every day. It's important to understand that this book isn't about oil statistics, it's about our lives and the ways in which we live will change. What do you hope readers will gain from reading your book? Readers should gain an appreciation for the kind of change that lies behind the growing price of gas. Weaning ourselves from gasoline isn't a scary thing, it's an exciting thing. We're talking about cleaner environments, more walkable lives, better public transportation and more vibrant cities. What are some of the surprising ways you think rising gas prices will change our everyday lives? I don't think people realize how close our airline industry is to an all-out collapse. The book details a massive airline extinction at $8 per gallon, and in fact, serious change could take place even before then. It's certainly not something that should be celebrated, but the collapse of that industry will open the door to new ones, such as widespread high-speed trains in America, a phenomenon that won't take serious root until plane tickets become luxuries rather than conveniences. Beyond the airlines, I think people might be surprised to think that their future may not include Wal-Mart, and that their food world may condense, ruling out things such as sushi, but introducing things such as local organic fruit, vegetables and meat. Is this pure speculation and fantasy or what kind of research did you do? I consulted experts in a bevy of industries throughout the whole book, so this is not a random exercise, far from it. That said, it can be hard to forecast exactly at what gas price each change will happen. There are many unforeseen factors that can accelerate or forestall a certain change, such as government involvement in building high-speed train networks. If the government funds trains aggressively, change will be effected quicker, obviously. But I do feel that all of the changes represented in the book will happen eventually, whether they take place at gas prices of $10 per gallon or $12 per gallon. So how scared should we be of the changes to come? There is little to be scared of. The rising price of gas will unlock countless doors to innovation, opportunity and change. Why does your book's subtitle say rising gas prices will change our lives "for the better"? How so? We've grown used to engorging ourselves on the back of cheap oil and it has lead to all manners of problems. As the price of gas goes up, we'll live closer to work, school, eat healthier foods and even be skinnier and safer. The book profiles research that connects cheap oil to America's obesity rate and to the daunting numbers of people that die on our roadways. As the price of gas goes up to, say, $6, we'll save more than $30 billion on obesity-related diseases, 10,000 fewer people will die in car crashes and thousands of people will be spared heart attack deaths related to air pollution. Those kinds of effects will only be magnified as the price of gas rises further. And that's just a sampling of the benefits. In what ways will rising gas prices improve our economy and job market? America has lost much of its manufacturing mojo during the last 20 years. A green revolution, fueled by a search for alternative energies and technologies, could change that. Not only will there be need to produce things such as solar panels, electric cars, and new city infrastructure, but the power of globalization will be blunted by higher gasoline prices. The advantages of, say, making a computer in China decrease as the cost of fuel increases and the cost of transporting things all over the earth rises-that will lead to manufacturing jobs returning here, to home soil. In what ways will the rising cost of gasoline boost innovation? The innovation game is one that many people anticipate as oil's grip on the world ebbs. New technologies will be needed in all arenas that oil touches, including cars, trains, our homes, the plastic we use and the roads we drive on-and those are just a few examples. The opportunities for inventors in a world with less oil will be prolific. What kind of places did you visit for your research and why was it necessary to visit them? Good books need good stories, and it's hard to tell a good story from just talking to people over the phone, so I got out there and did things. I worked on an electric UPS truck in Manhattan for a day; I spent some time on a fishing boat hauling in Asian carp; I descended into one of New York's new train tunnels currently under construction; I rode our nation's fastest train to meet the Amtrak CEO in Washington. I'm not anointing my book or my stories as good--that's up to the reader--but creating an enriching storyline within a nonfiction book was my goal, so I'm hopeful I did that. So now that we know this, what should we do in the here and now? Preparing for the future isn't about buying the latest gadgets or the car with the best mileage. Those things help, of course, but they're mere pings in a coming cacophony. People who will do the least amount of adjusting in the future are those who already live more sustainable lives. Where you live largely determines how you live. Buying solar panels for a house at the far edge of the suburbs, for instance, won't alter how the future affects you. Moving to a walkable neighborhood where groceries, your kids' schools, your office or a train are all within several blocks-that's a change you'll profit from and a place where the future will be kinder. Product DescriptionImagine an everyday world in which the price of gasoline (and oil) continues to go up, and up, and up. Think about the immediate impact that would have on our lives.
Of course, everybody already knows how about gasoline has affected our driving habits. People can't wait to junk their gas-guzzling SUVs for a new Prius. But there are more, not-so-obvious changes on the horizon that Chris Steiner tracks brilliantly in this provocative work.
Consider the following societal changes: people who own homes in far-off suburbs will soon realize that there's no longer any market for their houses (reason: nobody wants to live too far away because it's too expensive to commute to work). Telecommuting will begin to expand rapidly. Trains will become the mode of national transportation (as it used to be) as the price of flying becomes prohibitive. Families will begin to migrate southward as the price of heating northern homes in the winter is too pricey. Cheap everyday items that are comprised of plastic will go away because of the rising price to produce them (plastic is derived from oil). And this is just the beginning of a huge and overwhelming domino effect that our way of life will undergo in the years to come.
Steiner, an engineer by training before turning to journalism, sees how this simple but constant rise in oil and gas prices will totally re-structure our lifestyle. But what may be surprising to readers is that all of these changes may not be negative - but actually will usher in some new and very promising aspects of our society.
Steiner will probe how the liberation of technology and innovation, triggered by climbing gas prices, will change our lives. The book may start as an alarmist's exercise.... but don't be misled. The future will be exhilarating. |
| Customer Reviews:
Showing reviews 1-5 of 48
This book strikes the perfect chord on this subject. Not too alarmist. Not too glib. November 20, 2009 Troy Patterson (New York, NY) I loved how far the book ranged, how it touches on all of the things that the price of gasoline affects. It's truly amazing how our world will be changed as the price of gas goes up.
The author points out that many of the changes coming won't be comfortable ones. But they'll be far more comfortable if we prepare NOW. I found the food sections to be especially interesting. I'll never think of sushi or fish the same ever again.
I've begun to rethink everything I do, everything my family does. How many of our habits, our vacations, our ways-of-life are sustainable?
Overall, this book was very well written, easily digestible and intensely interesting. Definitely my favorite within the genre.
Interesting thought experiment, fatally flawed November 12, 2009 Ursa Major 1 out of 1 found this review helpful
The peak oil hypothesis may be very real; at the very least, as the author notes, large deposits of easily accessible oil will become harder to find, concurrent with increasing demand from China, India and other parts of the (rapidly) developing world; the combination will clearly lead to higher prices of oil, and therefore gasoline. The format is a novel one: how would life change with each relatively sizeable incremental increase in the average price of fuel at the pump. I'm guessing that the book concept was approved in 1H 2008, and the drop in In the market price of oil (and gasoline) by year end made the release timing somewhat awkward; ah well, the market giveth and the market taketh away.
In the hands of a more objective and rigorous writer, this could have been a very useful book; even as it stands, it provides some interesting insights (or at least stimulates thinking). Unfortunately, there are a few flaws that made me regularly roll my eyes, and ultimately discount the book's value:
First, for the sake of dramatic impact, the author assumes that the price of gasoline will increase in a matter of months to his initial target range - he's found an equity analyst or university professor who says that gas will reach $10 in the next year or two; he ignores the dozens of others who would disagree (a recurring theme), and even that one probably wishes he could take back his mid-08 quote 6 months later. While oil (and gas) prices are set at the margin and therefore volatile, this is likely to be a years- or decades-long process.
Second, the cure for high prices, as the saying goes, is high prices. The author gives little credit to human ingenuity and willingness to change consumption patterns. He notes that diesel use will go up, and that electric car use will come into vogue, but discounts the impact of those (and numerous other) initiatives on the ability to continue to drive, i.e. substitution effects. If gas prices really do ratchet as high as $6 in the next couple of years, the vehicle fleet will shift fairly rapidly in composition. As the author notes, Ford already sells 60-70 mpg vehicles in Europe (as do other automakers), and the only thing keeping those away from our shores is market demand. People aren't stupid, they'll adjust. By the time gas reaches $20/gallon, if it ever does, many adjustments will be made without completely changing the American lifestyle. The author repeatedly says that people won't buy electric cars in any numbers at $25k and above. I'm guessing that he's a) an urban dweller, and b) not all that well paid as a scribe at Forbes, and therefore c) hasn't shopped for a car in a while - what does he think the average car costs today?
Similarly, US consumers can weather higher gas prices much more easily than the new consumers in India and China due to income. If prices rise as much as he expects, demand will drop considerably in those emerging markets. The Chinese and Indian economies have lived without cars for a long time; the growth in demand in those countries will flatten or reverse fairly quickly if the author's scenario(s) prove out, reducing the price (or at least the pace of price increases) to US and European consumers.
Third, the book is largely anecdotal rather than analytical. It makes it an easy and engaging read, but doesn't do much to make the author's case. Remind me again why WalMart will be eliminated at $14 (or was it $12) but not at $8 or $16? He had a number of points to make, and seemingly spread them among random chapters.
Finally, there's an overriding sense of self-righteous, vindictive contempt for the way Americans choose to live their lives today that comes through consistently (especially in the chapter on the "Death of WalMart"). The author believes we should all live in walkable, mixed use urban centers or main-street focused small towns; he yearns for an idyllic past that never existed, and which suburbanites and exurbanites left because they wanted to. I hate to throw out the overused cliche "urban elites", but he's pretty clearly a member, and he can barely disguise his glee that the suburbs and big box stores he despises will be eliminated in a cleansing fire of high gasoline prices. The standard suburban American lifestyle that he hates so much, along with the globalization that makes it possible, are likely to prove more resilient than the author thinks. Sorry, WalMart (and Costco) aren't going away. Deal with it.
In summary, if this really were an objective scenario review it would be much more valuable than it is. As it stands, it's an ideological polemic screed that gives more insight into the author's belief system than it does into possible future outcomes. Too bad, the idea had some potential.
$10 of Indigestion October 31, 2009 Dr Alexander Elder (New York, USA) 1 out of 1 found this review helpful
Having been a confirmed "Peak Oil" person for years, I bought this book to see what changes are likely to occur in our economy in response to rising oil prices. I liked how the author structured his book in $2 chapters - life at $4/gallon gas, $6, $8, and so on. Smaller cars, hybrid cars, more public transportation, less imported produce, and so forth, step by $2 step.
But as I continued to read, I liked the book less and less because of two serious problems.
First, the author seemed to be gloating over his predicted disruptions. He seems happy when he writes that the airline industry will cease to exist and there'll be no imported oranges in winter. He cares not a bit for the people who would be hurt by those changes - consumers and employees.
Second, other than predicting more electric cars and high-speed rail, he has nothing positive in the book. The greatness of this country is that it always finds solutions to problems. Here the author describes the destruction of this and the demise of that, without bothering to comment of what might arise in their place.
The first great energy crisis in America occurred a century ago when the falling population of whales in the Atlantic reduced the supply of whale oil - the essential energy source of that era. We have overcome that problem, haven't we?
3 for audio, less for print October 16, 2009 dm (rhode island) 0 out of 1 found this review helpful
(This review relates to the audio version)
I have been following this topic and am very glad to have an audio book on the subject. And there is some good stuff here. The concept for organizing the book is clever. And some of the overall thoughts on our future are interesting as well.
BUT the book is not a great read. The writing is very inefficient. The author takes a long time to make his points, going into many exhaustive and unnecessary stories, perhaps under the mistaken notion that non-fiction must be colored up to be interesting. The whole book could have been 1/3 as long or less.
I also think that Steiner paints a somewhat preposterously smiley face on a ominous future. I wholly agree that, ultimately, a low energy future will be better than what we have now. But getting there from here is another matter. It may well be that mankind will lose billions of people in the change. That won't be happy.
Steiner also fails to discuss the gravity of the link between fossil fuel and the economy. It seems evident to me, or at least obvious enough to discuss, that the boom of modern society since the industrial revolution (and the resultant boom in population) has been the result of our ability to find and use fossil fuel. Once this one time "gift" starts to wane, won't the economy and population and the very complexity of society wane as well? We might be on the verge of an very long contraction of industry. Corporations (and the indexes of their value) may begin a basically endless contraction. The economy may never "recover." Many of us may have no job prospects except to grow food. Not all of this is bad, but certainly warrants examination and discussion, I would think. And none of it will likely be easy.
I'm not sure why Steiner wrote this book in this way. Is he trying to reassure us so we are not afraid to take action? Is it all a masked attempt to promote nuclear power? Is he just a very optimistic guy? Beats me.
Still, there's little else on audio and this is worth the read.
Interesting, readable, but ultimately misleading. October 4, 2009 Andrew Tune (Melbourne, Australia) 1 out of 1 found this review helpful
Steiner's book was highly recommended to me; I recommend it, but with some real reservations. It's well-written - interesting reading, in fact - and many people will derive some comfort from it, which is part of its appeal. However, it falls down in three areas, in my view.
Firstly, it's strong on assertions and weak on evidence. For example, he asserts that the $6 price point "will activate change like no other". Why? No particular evidence. It seems plausible, I guess, and it's evident that at $6 there will be big impacts, but why more than at (say) $10?
Secondly (and this is the big one), the book points out the massive societal changes that will result from the rising oil prices, and looks to the positive impacts on society. It's comforting to many people to think of moving back to some of the positive aspects of life in the '50s - local food, local industry: more community. It may be comforting, but it's only half the story.
Take food: most small US farms aren't self-sufficient: they rely on off-farm jobs to work, and the farmers rely on oil-guzzling equipment and oil-derived fertilizers to operate. With rising oil prices, this equipment and fertilizer will be too dear to use. The farms will be less viable unless the farmers are prepared (and able!) to put in a lot more manual work and use less oil-intense methods of improving fertility - things like cover crops, composts, manuring. Do they have the skills? Do they have the inclination? Quite possibly not. And yet these are the same farms on which small-town America will rely for its food!
Food is just an example: my point is that it's fine to look at the end-result of a society re-born with less reliance on food, but between here and there is a huge gulf, and we won't get across it without a great deal of pain. And when pain involves economic collapse and food shortages, the breakdown of law and order is not far away. The first world is not immune to the knock-on effects of overpopulation and food shortages that happen everywhere else in the world. But Steiner either doesn't believe this (for some unstated reason) or simply ignores it.
Lastly, it's a hugely US-centric book, which is a shame, because with a little effort to add some material for the rest of the world (much of which will be similar, but some of which will clearly not!) the appeal of the book could have been much wider.
I liked the book and I'm glad I read it. But many people will walk away from it with the comfort of having seen the light at the end of the tunnel, and no inkling that while the end of the tunnel is near, that particular light is in fact an oncoming train.
Showing reviews 1-5 of 48
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